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如果人民币升值的幅度过大,或时机把握不当,将会带来五大弊端:

第一,将对我国出口企业特别是劳动密集型企业造成冲击。在国际市场上,我国产品尤其是劳动密集型产品的出口价格远低于别国同类产品价格。究其原因,一是我国劳动力价格低廉,二是由于激烈的国内竞争,使得出口企业不惜血本,竞相采用低价销售的策略。人民币一旦升值,为维持同样的人民币价格底线,用外币表示的我国出口产品价格将有所提高,这会削弱其价格竞争力;而要使出口产品的外币价格不变,则势必挤压出口企业的利润空间,这不能不对出口企业特别是劳动密集型企业造成冲击。

第二,不利于我国引进境外直接投资。我国是世界上引进境外直接投资最多的国家,目前外资企业在我国工业、农业、服务业等各个领域发挥着日益明显的作用,对促进技术进步、增加劳动就业、扩大出口,从而对促进整个国民经济的发展产生着不可忽视的影响。人民币升值后,虽然对已在中国投资的外商不会产生实质性影响,但是对即将前来中国投资的外商会产生不利影响,因为这会使他们的投资成本上升。在这种情况下,他们可能会将投资转向其他发展中国家。

第三,加大国内就业压力。人民币升值对出口企业和境外直接投资的影响,最终将体现在就业上。因为我国出口产品的大部分是劳动密集型产品,出口受阻必然会加大就业压力;外资企业则是提供新增就业岗位最多的部门之一,外资增长放缓,会使国内就业形势更为严峻。

第四,影响金融市场的稳定。人民币如果升值,大量境外短期投机资金就会乘机而入,大肆炒作人民币汇率。在中国金融市场发育还很不健全的情况下,这很容易引发金融货币危机。另外,人民币升值会使以美元衡量的银行现有不良资产的实际金额进一步上升,不利于整个银行业的改革和负债结构调整。

第五,巨额外汇储备将面临缩水的威胁。目前,中国的外汇储备高达6591亿美元,仅次于日本居世界第二位。充足的外汇储备是我国经济实力不断增强、对外开放水平日益提高的重要标志,也是我们促进国内经济发展、参与对外经济活动的有力保证。然而,一旦人民币升值,巨额外汇储备便面临缩水的威胁。假如人民币兑美元等主要可兑换货币升值10%,则我国的外汇储备便缩水10%。这是我们不得不面对的严峻问题。

If the Renminbi revaluation's scope is oversized, or the opportunity grasps improper, will bring five big malpractices:
first, will be specially the labor-intensive form enterprise has the impact on our country Export enterprise. In the international market, our country product labor-intensive product's export value is lower than other country similar products price far particularly. Investigates its reason; first, our country labor force low in price; second, as a result of the intense domestic competition, causes the Export enterprise to do not hesitate the initial capital, competes to use the low price sale the strategy. Once the Renminbi revalues, for the maintenance similar Renminbi price agent, our country export products price which expressed with the foreign currency will improve, this will weaken its price competitive power; But must make the export products the foreign currency price to be invariable, will then extrude Export enterprise's profit space inevitably, this has no alternative but to be specially the labor-intensive form enterprise has the impact on the Export enterprise. second, does not favor our country to introduce the foreign direct investment. Our country is in the world introduces foreign direct investment most countries, at present the Foreign-funded enterprise in our country industry, the agriculture, service industry and so on each domain is playing day by day the obvious role, to promotes the technology advancement, to increase the labor employment, the export expansion, thus to promotes the entire national economy development to have the noticeable influence. After Renminbi revaluation, although to has invested in China the foreign merchant will not have the substantive influence, but to will soon come the foreign merchant which China will invest to have the adverse effect, because this will cause their cost of investment rise. In this case, they will possibly invest change other developing countries.
third, enlarges the domestic employment pressure. The Renminbi revaluation to the Export enterprise and the foreign direct investment's influence, will manifest finally in the employment. Because our country export products' majority is the labor-intensive product, the export will be blocked definitely will enlarge the employment pressure; The Foreign-funded enterprise provides one of additional employment post most departments, foreign capital decelerated growth, will cause the domestic employment situation to be more stern.
fourth, affects the money market the stability. If the Renminbi revalues, the massive foreign short-term speculative capital will take an opportunity, will hype the RMB rate wantonly. In the China money market growth also very much not perfect situation, this very easy to cause the finance money crisis. Moreover, the Renminbi revaluation can cause by the US dollar weight bank existing bad assets actual amount to further rise, does not favor the entire banking industry's reform and the debt structural adjustment.
fifth, the large amount foreign exchange reserve will face the shrinkage the threat. At present, China's foreign exchange reserve reaches as high as 659,100,000,000 US dollars, is only inferior in Japan occupies second in the world. The sufficient foreign exchange reserve is our country economic potentiality strengthens the important symbol which unceasingly, the level of opening up enhances day by day, is also we promotes the domestic economy development, the participation externally orientated economic activities powerful guarantee. However, once Renminbi revaluation, large amount foreign exchange reserve folding fan near shrinkage threat. If the Renminbi exchanges US dollar and so on main convertible currency to revalue 10%, then our country's foreign exchange reserve then shrinks 10%. This is the stern question which we can not but face. **
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第1个回答  2008-04-21
If the appreciation of the RMB are too large or inappropriate timing will bring five drawbacks:

First, China will export enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises an impact. In the international market, China's labor-intensive products, especially the export of products with prices much lower than the price of similar products in other countries. The reasons are: First of China's cheap labor, and the second is due to intense domestic competition, making export enterprises pay the high cost of competing low-cost sales strategy. Once the RMB revaluation of the yuan to maintain the same price line with the foreign currency that China's export prices will increase, which would weaken the price competitiveness of export products and to make the foreign currency prices unchanged, and it would be squeezed export enterprises the profits of space, which can not fail to export enterprises, especially labor-intensive enterprises an impact.

Second, to the detriment of China's introduction of foreign direct investment. China is the world's introduction of foreign direct investment than any other country, the present foreign-funded enterprises in China's industry, agriculture, services and other fields to play an increasingly prominent role in the promotion of technological progress, increased employment, the expansion of exports, thus promoting the the development of the national economy should not be overlooked in the impact. The appreciation of the renminbi, has Although foreign investment in China will not have a material impact, but on the forthcoming visit of foreign investment in China would have a negative impact, as it would increase their cost of investment. In such circumstances, they may shift of investment to other developing countries.

Third, the intensity of domestic employment pressure. RMB appreciation on export enterprises and the impact of foreign direct investment, and ultimately will be reflected in employment. Because the majority of China's exports are labor-intensive products, exports will increase pressure on employment disruption; foreign-funded enterprises is to provide new jobs one of the largest foreign slower growth, the employment situation will cause more severe .

Fourth, the impact on the stability of financial markets. If the renminbi appreciation, a large number of speculative short-term funds overseas will get the opportunity, hype the RMB exchange rate. In the development of China's financial market is far from perfect circumstances, it is easy to trigger monetary crisis. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi would in dollar terms of the existing banks the actual amount of non-performing assets increased further, to the detriment of the entire banking sector reform and debt restructuring.

Fifth, the huge foreign exchange reserve will be facing the threat of shrinking. At present, China's foreign exchange reserve reached 659.1 billion US dollars, second only to Japan ranked second in the world. Adequate foreign exchange reserves of China's economic strength has been continuously enhanced, increasing the level of opening up an important sign that we promote domestic economic development, and participation in external economic activities of the powerful guarantee. However, once the appreciation of the renminbi, huge foreign exchange reserve will be facing the threat of shrinking. If the yuan against the dollar and other major convertible currencies appreciate 10%, then China's foreign exchange reserves will shrink by 10%. This is what we have to face the serious problem.本回答被提问者采纳